VfL Wolfsburg 4-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 3W 2D 5L at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfL Wolfsburg at 0.50 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 35% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.87 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.669 / defence 1.086 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.720 / defence 1.637. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.366. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 1.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.637 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 VfL Wolfsburg games / 20 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 19%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.26. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.87 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.669 / def 1.086 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.720 / def 1.637 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Wolfsburg 4 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 54% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.67) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.78
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
3%
33.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.07 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg's recent record stands at 6W 3D 11L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 14L across 20 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfL Wolfsburg by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfL Wolfsburg have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 0W 1D 9L across 10 trips, a 0.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.85 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 4D 14L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.10 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.10 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
VfL Wolfsburg
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg 4-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 40%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 30% for VfL Wolfsburg and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 30% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Wolfsburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-1 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.87 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.72 / defence 1.64, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 19%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 40%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.