VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees SC Freiburg travel to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Wolfsburg 1.40 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 52% versus SC Freiburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.15 xG and SC Freiburg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.836 / defence 0.992 | SC Freiburg attack 0.980 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.274. Data: 42 VfL Wolfsburg games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 35% | SC Freiburg 35%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | SC Freiburg 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 35% | SC Freiburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.15 / SC Freiburg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.836 / def 0.992 | SC Freiburg attack 0.980 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SC Freiburg xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 30% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.84x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
30%
3.28
35%
2.89
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.39
1.24
SC Freiburg xG
3.28
30%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.24 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg's recent record stands at 21W 11D 10L from 42 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 13L across 42 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.76 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfL Wolfsburg have managed 12W 5D 4L from 21 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 21W 11D 10L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 16W 13D 13L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.95 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.24 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 43%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 62% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.15 xG and SC Freiburg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against SC Freiburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 35% | SC Freiburg 35%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.