VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host FC Augsburg at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
VfL Wolfsburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
FC Augsburg trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 50% versus FC Augsburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 50% | FC Augsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG and FC Augsburg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.772 / defence 1.076 | FC Augsburg attack 0.732 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.265. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 VfL Wolfsburg games / 44 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | FC Augsburg 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | FC Augsburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 / FC Augsburg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.772 / def 1.076 | FC Augsburg attack 0.732 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 44% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.77) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
44%
2.28
33%
2.99
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.00
FC Augsburg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.00 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 44 games, going 22W 11D 11L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.02 PPG from 44 outings (12W 9D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 12W 5D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (4W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.02 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 games (1.75 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 12W 9D 23L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.86 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.73 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 41%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 50% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out FC Augsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat FC Augsburg 1-0 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG and FC Augsburg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against FC Augsburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 44% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 23%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 50%, FC Augsburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.