VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 7W 2D 1L at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 2.00 for Borussia Dortmund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 53% versus Borussia Dortmund 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 53% | Borussia Dortmund 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.95 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.162 / defence 0.940 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.223 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.303. Borussia Dortmund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 VfL Wolfsburg games / 30 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 47% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 29%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 3.45. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Borussia Dortmund 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 47% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.95 / Borussia Dortmund 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.162 / def 0.940 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.223 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Borussia Dortmund xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 47% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 1.16x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.22x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.24
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.50
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
4%
24.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 30 games, going 16W 9D 5L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (16W 4D 10L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.73 for Borussia Dortmund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 9W 4D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.13 scored and 1.40 conceded. Borussia Dortmund's attacking output running into VfL Wolfsburg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 63%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 9D 5L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 16W 4D 10L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 2.21 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.64 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 43%, Borussia Dortmund 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for VfL Wolfsburg and 79% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 79% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 79% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.95 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.50 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.22 / defence 1.36, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 47% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 29%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 53%, Borussia Dortmund 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.