VfL Bochum 0-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to Vonovia Ruhrstadion to face VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfL Bochum have collected 0.60 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.00 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Bochum 40% and VfB Stuttgart 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Bochum 60% | VfB Stuttgart 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.815 / defence 1.252 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.914 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.209. Data: 5 VfL Bochum games / 39 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 37% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 32%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | VfB Stuttgart 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Bochum at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfL Bochum 40% | VfB Stuttgart 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 37% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG VfL Bochum 1.51 / VfB Stuttgart 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.815 / def 1.252 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.914 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.38
VfB Stuttgart xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Bochum 0 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 37% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.81) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.91x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.26
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.89
1.38
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.38 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 0D 4L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for VfL Bochum against 0.80 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Bochum are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 40%, VfB Stuttgart 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VfL Bochum and 80% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of VfL Bochum's games and 80% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfL Bochum's matches and 80% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Bochum's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 0-0 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.38 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Bochum fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 37% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 32%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, VfB Stuttgart 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.60 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.