VfB Stuttgart 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at Mercedes-Benz-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. VfL Wolfsburg's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of VfB Stuttgart's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 67% versus VfL Wolfsburg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 55% | VfL Wolfsburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.02 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.842 / defence 0.993 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.138 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.279. VfL Wolfsburg's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 VfB Stuttgart games / 58 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.02 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.842 / def 0.993 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.138 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 23% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (3 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.84) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
23%
4.32
34%
2.99
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.47
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
5%
18.31
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.45 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 11W 20D 27L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 21W 14D 23L from 58 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfL Wolfsburg are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 10W 6D 13L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 11W 20D 27L in their last 58 games (0.91 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 21W 14D 23L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.28 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.24 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 72%, VfL Wolfsburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (VfB Stuttgart) and 48% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 31%; VfL Wolfsburg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 38% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 48% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out VfB Stuttgart 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.02 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.68, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 55%, VfL Wolfsburg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.