VfB Stuttgart 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 April 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. VfL Wolfsburg's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of VfB Stuttgart's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 69% and VfL Wolfsburg 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 59% | VfL Wolfsburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.52 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.068 / defence 1.119 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.078 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.286. Data: 29 VfB Stuttgart games / 29 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 37%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.52 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.068 / def 1.119 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.078 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 36% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.07) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.77
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.07
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.55 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 10W 9D 10L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 15W 9D 5L from 29 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, VfL Wolfsburg are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 4D 4L from 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 15W 9D 5L in their last 29 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.29 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.57 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 71%, VfL Wolfsburg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfB Stuttgart) and 50% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 57% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 1-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.52 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 37%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.