VfB Stuttgart 4-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Bochum make the trip to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 0.40 for VfL Bochum. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfL Bochum in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 0W, VfL Bochum 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 65% versus VfL Bochum 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 49% | VfL Bochum 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and VfL Bochum 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.686 / defence 1.072 | VfL Bochum attack 0.792 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.384. VfB Stuttgart's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 VfB Stuttgart games / 43 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 30%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Bochum 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | VfL Bochum 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.47 / VfL Bochum 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.686 / def 1.072 | VfL Bochum attack 0.792 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.17
VfL Bochum xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 43% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
Record (2 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 2 | VfL Bochum 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.79x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.67
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.64
1.17
VfL Bochum xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.17 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 7W 17D 19L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 13W 7D 23L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.07 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 15L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.07 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 17D 19L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 13W 7D 23L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Bochum away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.00 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 71%, VfL Bochum 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (VfB Stuttgart) and 62% (VfL Bochum). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart have failed to score in 29% of games; VfL Bochum in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 52% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 62% of VfL Bochum's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-1 hammering of VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Bochum 4-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and VfL Bochum 1.17 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against VfL Bochum attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 43% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 30%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 49%, VfL Bochum 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 0.88 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.