VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 45%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Union Berlin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 69% and Union Berlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 60% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.09 xG and Union Berlin 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.203 / defence 1.200 | Union Berlin attack 1.135 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.272. Data: 42 VfB Stuttgart games / 42 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 45% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Union Berlin 3.23. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Union Berlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 45% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.09 / Union Berlin 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.203 / def 1.200 | Union Berlin attack 1.135 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Union Berlin xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 45% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.20) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (1.14x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.10
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.83
1.73
Union Berlin xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
4%
26.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.73 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 12D 16L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 16W 17D 9L from 42 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.55 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 5W 7D 8L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.48 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 12D 16L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 9L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Union Berlin away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.35 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
3
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Union Berlin have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for VfB Stuttgart, 65% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (VfB Stuttgart) and 50% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 65% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 9, as VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.09 xG and Union Berlin 1.73 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against Union Berlin attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 45% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 60%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.29 PPG, Union Berlin 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.