VfB Stuttgart 5-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VfB Stuttgart haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Mercedes-Benz-Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at Mercedes-Benz-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.89 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.956 / defence 1.054 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.283. Data: 34 VfB Stuttgart games / 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.89 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.956 / def 1.054 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfB Stuttgart 5 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.96x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.85x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.04
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
3%
31.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.15 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Pre-Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 8 January 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.89 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.