VfB Stuttgart 1-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as VfB Stuttgart welcome RB Leipzig to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RB Leipzig haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
RB Leipzig's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (VfB Stuttgart) versus 1.80 (RB Leipzig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for RB Leipzig and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
RB Leipzig trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and RB Leipzig 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 50% | RB Leipzig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and RB Leipzig 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.971 / defence 1.032 | RB Leipzig attack 1.119 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.560. Data: 34 VfB Stuttgart games / 34 RB Leipzig games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 31% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 45%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 2.22. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 31% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.47 / RB Leipzig 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.971 / def 1.032 | RB Leipzig attack 1.119 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.560 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.80
RB Leipzig xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 31% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
Record (2 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.97x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
31%
3.22
24%
4.23
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.27
1.80
RB Leipzig xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
5%
19.49
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.80 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 12D 15L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. VfB Stuttgart haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
RB Leipzig's form line: 17W 7D 10L from 34 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. RB Leipzig haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.12 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Pre-Season
RB Leipzig
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 12D 15L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.29 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2021, when RB Leipzig won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 76%, RB Leipzig at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (VfB Stuttgart) and 35% (RB Leipzig).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 65% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 35% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig finished level at 1-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and RB Leipzig 1.80 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Leipzig landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against RB Leipzig attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 31% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 45%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 50%, RB Leipzig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.