VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Hertha BSC travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 3W 3D 4L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 0.90 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Hertha BSC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hertha BSC trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and Hertha BSC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 53% | Hertha BSC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.37 xG and Hertha BSC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.834 / defence 1.041 | Hertha BSC attack 0.866 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.327. Data: 47 VfB Stuttgart games / 47 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 40% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 32%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Hertha BSC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 40% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.37 / Hertha BSC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.834 / def 1.041 | Hertha BSC attack 0.866 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hertha BSC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 40% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.65
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.57
1.20
Hertha BSC xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.20 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 9W 17D 21L from 47 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 24L across 47 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 0.94 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 7W 6D 10L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 4D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.13 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 9W 17D 21L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Hertha BSC away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.17 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 74%, Hertha BSC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (VfB Stuttgart) and 52% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart have failed to score in 26% of games; Hertha BSC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 44% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 52% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Hertha BSC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.37 xG and Hertha BSC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Hertha BSC attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 40% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 32%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 53%, Hertha BSC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 0.94 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.