VfB Stuttgart 2-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Hertha BSC travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 4W 1D 5L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.00 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Hertha BSC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hertha BSC trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 70% and Hertha BSC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 60% | Hertha BSC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.07 xG and Hertha BSC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.985 / defence 1.063 | Hertha BSC attack 0.827 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.282. Data: 47 VfB Stuttgart games / 47 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Hertha BSC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.07 / Hertha BSC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.985 / def 1.063 | Hertha BSC attack 0.827 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hertha BSC xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 57% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC?
Record (2 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.96
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.20
1.13
Hertha BSC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
44.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.13 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 15W 13D 19L from 47 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 22L across 47 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.23 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 8W 7D 9L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Hertha BSC away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.29 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 75%, Hertha BSC at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VfB Stuttgart) and 54% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 58% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 54% of Hertha BSC's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC finished level at 2-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.07 xG and Hertha BSC 1.13 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Hertha BSC attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 60%, Hertha BSC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.23 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.