VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 39%, yet in-form FSV Mainz 05 provide a compelling counter-argument — this VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 make the trip to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Mercedes-Benz-Arena: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 70% and FSV Mainz 05 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 59% | FSV Mainz 05 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.990 / defence 1.145 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.982 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.187. Data: 46 VfB Stuttgart games / 46 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | FSV Mainz 05 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FSV Mainz 05 (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.53 / FSV Mainz 05 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.990 / def 1.145 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.982 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FSV Mainz 05 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 39% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.99) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.98x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.30
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.86
1.33
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.33 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 19L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.24 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.20 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FSV Mainz 05's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.27 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
1
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for VfB Stuttgart, 64% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (VfB Stuttgart) and 59% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 64% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 59% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.33 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 59%, FSV Mainz 05 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.20 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.