VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 3W 3D 4L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 68% and Borussia Dortmund 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 56% | Borussia Dortmund 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.043 / defence 1.302 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.285 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.321. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 VfB Stuttgart games / 62 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 55%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Dortmund 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.41 / Borussia Dortmund 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.043 / def 1.302 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.285 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Borussia Dortmund xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 23% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
23%
4.35
22%
4.47
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.62
2.21
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.35
23%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
11%
9.12
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
3%
39.62
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 2.21 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 18D 26L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.95 PPG from 62 outings (38W 7D 17L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 10W 9D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.71 points per game from 31 outings (16W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 69%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 games (1.16 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 38W 7D 17L in their last 62 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.26 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 74%, Borussia Dortmund at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VfB Stuttgart and 68% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 74% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 68% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 0-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.21 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.28 / defence 0.83, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 55%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 56%, Borussia Dortmund 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.