VfB Stuttgart 0-5 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as VfB Stuttgart welcome Bayern München to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayern München are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 69% and Bayern München 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 59% | Bayern München 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG and Bayern München 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.978 / defence 1.108 | Bayern München attack 1.622 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.334. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.622 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 VfB Stuttgart games / 49 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 56%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Bayern München 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Bayern München 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.53 / Bayern München 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.978 / def 1.108 | Bayern München attack 1.622 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Bayern München xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 14 December 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 5 Bayern München.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 23% chance of winning, Bayern München a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.98) and Bayern München's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
23%
4.39
22%
4.61
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.93
2.40
Bayern München xG
4.39
23%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.64
Clean Sheet
9%
10.99
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
2%
48.29
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 2.40 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 14D 19L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 36W 7D 6L from 49 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 16W 3D 5L from 24 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.98 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bayern München in 73%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 14D 19L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 36W 7D 6L in their last 49 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.33 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when Bayern München won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Bayern München have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Bayern München 4-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 75%, Bayern München at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for VfB Stuttgart and 79% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 83% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 79% of Bayern München's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 0-5 hammering of VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 0-5 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG and Bayern München 2.40 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bayern München outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Bayern München attack 1.62 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 23% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 56%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 59%, Bayern München 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayern München's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.