VfB Stuttgart 1-3 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as VfB Stuttgart welcome Bayern München to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 2W 5D 1L from 8 Bundesliga matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.75 lags behind their overall 1.38 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this season.
Bayern München — All Games: 6W 1D 1L from 8 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.38 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayern München are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.38 vs 1.38), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 88% and Bayern München 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 50% | Bayern München 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and Bayern München 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.935 / defence 1.251 | Bayern München attack 1.112 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.612. Bayern München bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 VfB Stuttgart games / 8 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 50%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Bayern München 2.00. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 100% | Bayern München 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.58 / Bayern München 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.935 / def 1.251 | Bayern München attack 1.112 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.612 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Bayern München xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 Bayern München.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 25% chance of winning, Bayern München a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-5D-1L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Bayern München (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.94) and Bayern München's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
25%
4.05
25%
4.02
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.82
2.24
Bayern München xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
11%
9.41
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
3%
38.15
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 2.24 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 2W 5D 1L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 6W 1D 1L from 8 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That actually lags their 1.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Bayern München in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 0.75 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when Bayern München won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Bayern München have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Bayern München 4-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 100%, Bayern München at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for VfB Stuttgart and 100% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 100% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 100% of Bayern München's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 1-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and Bayern München 2.24 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.94 / defence 1.25 against Bayern München attack 1.11 / defence 1.28, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 50%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 50%, Bayern München 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.