VfB Stuttgart 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at Mercedes-Benz-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.50 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 68% and Bayer Leverkusen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.78 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.213 / defence 1.222 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.252. Data: 38 VfB Stuttgart games / 38 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 36%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.78 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.213 / def 1.222 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 37% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.21) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.14x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.62
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.53
1.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.75 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 13W 10D 15L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.55 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 7W 6D 6L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.71 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.26 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 74%, Bayer Leverkusen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VfB Stuttgart) and 42% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 37%; Bayer Leverkusen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 42% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 42% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat VfB Stuttgart 1-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.78 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.21 / defence 1.22 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 37% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 36%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 60%, Bayer Leverkusen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.29 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.