VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Arminia Bielefeld in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward VfB Stuttgart. A 0.50 PPG lead over Arminia Bielefeld (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 0W, Arminia Bielefeld 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 70% versus Arminia Bielefeld 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 59% | Arminia Bielefeld 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.83 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.119 / defence 1.136 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.806 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.265. Data: 44 VfB Stuttgart games / 44 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 21%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Arminia Bielefeld 4.76. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Arminia Bielefeld 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.83 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.119 / def 1.136 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.806 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Arminia Bielefeld xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 50% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.12) and Arminia Bielefeld's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.81x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.48
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.99
1.16
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
3%
29.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.16 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 14W 13D 17L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 9W 13D 22L from 44 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 0.91 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 8D 10L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.73 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 13D 22L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.33 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arminia Bielefeld won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
3
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 76%, Arminia Bielefeld 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (VfB Stuttgart) and 43% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 48% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 43% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arminia Bielefeld defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.83 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.16 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 21%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 59%, Arminia Bielefeld 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.25 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arminia Bielefeld win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.