VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Arminia Bielefeld in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.30 for Arminia Bielefeld. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 0W, Arminia Bielefeld 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2021, ended 0–3 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 70% versus Arminia Bielefeld 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 61% | Arminia Bielefeld 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.020 / defence 1.219 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.576 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.289. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 VfB Stuttgart games / 33 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.56. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 60% | Arminia Bielefeld 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.65 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.020 / def 1.219 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.576 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Arminia Bielefeld xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 2 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.02) and Arminia Bielefeld's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.58x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.40
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.56
0.91
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
29.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.91 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 12W 9D 12L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 8W 8D 17L from 33 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 0.97 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.73 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 8W 8D 17L in their last 33 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.31 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.75 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arminia Bielefeld won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
3
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 75%, Arminia Bielefeld 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (VfB Stuttgart) and 50% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat VfB Stuttgart 0-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.91 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.58 / defence 1.25, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 61%, Arminia Bielefeld 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.36 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arminia Bielefeld win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.