Union Berlin 3-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Union Berlin. A 0.70 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union Berlin 1W, Werder Bremen 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2021, ended 2–0 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 67% and Werder Bremen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 47% | Werder Bremen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.50 xG and Werder Bremen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.939 / defence 1.012 | Werder Bremen attack 0.775 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.303. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Union Berlin games / 30 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Werder Bremen 4.00. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | Werder Bremen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Union Berlin 1.50 / Werder Bremen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.939 / def 1.012 | Werder Bremen attack 0.775 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Werder Bremen xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin 3 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen part of?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Berlin and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.78x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.56
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.53
1.02
Werder Bremen xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.02 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 10W 13D 7L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 7W 9D 14L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (6W 8D 1L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 13D 7L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 7W 9D 14L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Werder Bremen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.73 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Union Berlin, 60% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union Berlin) and 33% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Union Berlin's games and 60% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union Berlin's recent games and 33% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Werder Bremen 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.50 xG and Werder Bremen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Werder Bremen attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 47%, Werder Bremen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.