Union Berlin 2-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 60% versus VfL Wolfsburg 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | VfL Wolfsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.53 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.123 / defence 0.820 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.718 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.486. Data: 40 Union Berlin games / 40 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 53% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.55. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 53% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Union Berlin 1.53 / VfL Wolfsburg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.123 / def 0.820 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.718 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.88
VfL Wolfsburg xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 53% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (1.12) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.87
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.40
0.88
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.88 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 40 games, going 20W 11D 9L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.18 PPG from 40 outings (13W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 12W 6D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 20W 11D 9L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.10 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 60%, VfL Wolfsburg 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Union Berlin) and 45% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 35% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Union Berlin's recent games and 45% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.53 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.88 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.12 / defence 0.82 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 53% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 22%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, VfL Wolfsburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.