Union Berlin 2-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.70 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 68% and VfL Wolfsburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | VfL Wolfsburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.839 / defence 0.757 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.126 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.234. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Union Berlin games / 41 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 26%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Union Berlin 1.33 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.839 / def 0.757 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.126 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.05
VfL Wolfsburg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 40% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.84) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
40%
2.51
34%
2.94
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.39
1.05
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.05 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 17D 9L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.80 PPG from 41 outings (21W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.51 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 10W 10D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.71 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 15W 17D 9L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 70%, VfL Wolfsburg at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 55% (VfL Wolfsburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Union Berlin's games and 65% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 55% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.76 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 40% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 26%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, VfL Wolfsburg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.51 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.