Union Berlin 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Union Berlin's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 56% versus VfL Bochum 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | VfL Bochum 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.99 xG and VfL Bochum 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.977 / defence 0.633 | VfL Bochum attack 0.794 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.752 / away 1.303. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Union Berlin games / 61 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 67% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 9%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.49 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Bochum 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (67%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 40% | VfL Bochum 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 67% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Union Berlin 1.99 / VfL Bochum 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.977 / def 0.633 | VfL Bochum attack 0.794 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.752 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.66
VfL Bochum xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 67% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 9% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.98) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.79x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
67%
1.50
24%
4.16
9%
10.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.64
0.66
VfL Bochum xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
10.86
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
1%
79.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.66 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 31W 15D 15L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 20W 8D 33L from 61 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (19W 9D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 6W 3D 21L from 30 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.11 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 31W 15D 15L in their last 61 games (1.77 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 20W 8D 33L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Bochum away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.20 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 53%, VfL Bochum 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Union Berlin) and 63% (VfL Bochum). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 47% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Union Berlin's matches and 63% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.99 xG and VfL Bochum 0.66 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.98 / defence 0.63 against VfL Bochum attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 67% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 9%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, VfL Bochum 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.