Union Berlin 1-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union Berlin's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of VfB Stuttgart's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Union Berlin, 0 for VfB Stuttgart and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 63% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | VfB Stuttgart 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.64 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.943 / defence 0.937 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.796 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.351. Data: 59 Union Berlin games / 59 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | VfB Stuttgart 4.55. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 40% | VfB Stuttgart 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 1.64 / VfB Stuttgart 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.943 / def 0.937 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.796 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.01
VfB Stuttgart xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 51% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.94) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.80x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.79
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
22.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.01 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 22W 21D 16L from 59 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 26L across 59 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.14 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 15W 11D 3L from 29 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 8W 7D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 22W 21D 16L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 17W 16D 26L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.93 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Berlin
4
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 66%, VfB Stuttgart 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Union Berlin) and 55% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Union Berlin's games and 59% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Union Berlin's matches and 55% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.64 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 51% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 22%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, VfB Stuttgart 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.47 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.