Union Berlin 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 7D 0L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
VfB Stuttgart arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 68% and VfB Stuttgart 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | VfB Stuttgart 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.935 / defence 1.015 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.902 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.350. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Union Berlin games / 28 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 30%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Union Berlin 1.51 / VfB Stuttgart 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.935 / def 1.015 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.902 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.24
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.94) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.90x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.55
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.75
1.24
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 9W 13D 6L from 28 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 9L across 28 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.39 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 5W 8D 1L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 6W 3D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.79 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 9W 13D 6L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.64 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Berlin
4
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Union Berlin, 64% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 64% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Union Berlin's games and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union Berlin's matches and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.51 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.24 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.90 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 30%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, VfB Stuttgart 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.43 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.