Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart meet at in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 4D 4L at — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Union Berlin, 3 for VfB Stuttgart and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 60% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 66% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.11 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.945 / defence 1.278 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.057 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 2.007 / away 1.401. Data: 38 Union Berlin games / 38 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 35%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | VfB Stuttgart 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Union Berlin 2.11 / VfB Stuttgart 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.945 / def 1.278 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.057 / def 1.113 | league avg home 2.007 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.89
VfB Stuttgart xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 April 2027.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 43% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 35% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 3W | Draws 4 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.94) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.06x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
43%
2.30
21%
4.66
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
4.01
1.89
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
4%
23.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.89 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 10W 10D 18L from 38 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 11L across 38 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfB Stuttgart's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.03 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.21 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Berlin
4
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Union Berlin, 84% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union Berlin and 100% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union Berlin's games and 84% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union Berlin's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.