Union Berlin 2-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.50 (RB Leipzig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 68% versus RB Leipzig 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | RB Leipzig 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.41 xG and RB Leipzig 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.963 / defence 0.910 | RB Leipzig attack 0.802 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.255. Data: 47 Union Berlin games / 47 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | RB Leipzig 4.55. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union Berlin 60% | RB Leipzig 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Union Berlin 1.41 / RB Leipzig 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.963 / def 0.910 | RB Leipzig attack 0.802 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.92
RB Leipzig xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 45% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.05
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.32
0.92
RB Leipzig xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.92 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 19D 11L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.77 PPG from 47 outings (24W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.49 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 12W 10D 1L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.79 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 17W 19D 11L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 24W 11D 12L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 65%, RB Leipzig 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 44% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; RB Leipzig in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Union Berlin's games and 52% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union Berlin's recent games and 44% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out RB Leipzig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat RB Leipzig 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.41 xG and RB Leipzig 0.92 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against RB Leipzig attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 45% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 22%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, RB Leipzig 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.49 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.