Union Berlin 2-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.50 (RB Leipzig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 67% versus RB Leipzig 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | RB Leipzig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.38 xG and RB Leipzig 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.997 / defence 1.035 | RB Leipzig attack 1.172 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.289. Data: 33 Union Berlin games / 33 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 31% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | RB Leipzig 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | RB Leipzig 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 31% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Union Berlin 1.38 / RB Leipzig 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.997 / def 1.035 | RB Leipzig attack 1.172 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.56
RB Leipzig xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 31% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
31%
3.20
29%
3.41
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.94
1.56
RB Leipzig xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.56 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 14D 8L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.97 PPG from 33 outings (19W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 7W 8D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.79 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 14D 8L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 19W 8D 6L in their last 33 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.81 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 75%, RB Leipzig 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Union Berlin) and 56% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Union Berlin's games and 50% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union Berlin's matches and 56% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat RB Leipzig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat RB Leipzig 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.38 xG and RB Leipzig 1.56 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against RB Leipzig attack 1.17 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 31% | Draw 29% | RB Leipzig 39%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, RB Leipzig 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.