Union Berlin 2-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Union Berlin welcome Hertha BSC to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.60 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Union Berlin have won 0, Hertha BSC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 69% and Hertha BSC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.01 xG and Hertha BSC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.960 / defence 1.007 | Hertha BSC attack 0.943 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.188. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Union Berlin games / 45 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 56% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 19%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Hertha BSC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 56% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Union Berlin 2.01 / Hertha BSC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.960 / def 1.007 | Hertha BSC attack 0.943 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hertha BSC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC part of?
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 56% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union Berlin and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.96) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.92
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.13
1.13
Hertha BSC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
3%
39.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.13 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 19D 10L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.07 PPG from 45 outings (12W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 11W 10D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.18 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 19D 10L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 12D 21L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Hertha BSC away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.87 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union Berlin have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Union Berlin won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 70%, Hertha BSC at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 56% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Union Berlin's games and 61% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Union Berlin's recent games and 56% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Hertha BSC 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.01 xG and Hertha BSC 1.13 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Hertha BSC attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 56% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 19%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.