Union Berlin 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Union Berlin welcome Hertha BSC to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 4W 6D 0L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.00 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Union Berlin have won 0, Hertha BSC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2020, ended 1–3 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 65% versus Hertha BSC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | Hertha BSC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.40 xG and Hertha BSC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.954 / defence 0.999 | Hertha BSC attack 0.639 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.329. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Union Berlin games / 26 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Hertha BSC 4.55. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 70% | Hertha BSC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Union Berlin 1.40 / Hertha BSC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.954 / def 0.999 | Hertha BSC attack 0.639 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hertha BSC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 April 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC part of?
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 49% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union Berlin and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.95) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.39
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Hertha BSC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
5%
18.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.85 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 11D 6L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 5W 7D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 9W 11D 6L in their last 26 games (1.46 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Hertha BSC away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.69 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union Berlin have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Union Berlin won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 69%, Hertha BSC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union Berlin) and 46% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Union Berlin's games and 54% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Union Berlin's recent games and 46% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 27, as Union Berlin and Hertha BSC drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.40 xG and Hertha BSC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Hertha BSC attack 0.64 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 49% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 22%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, Hertha BSC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.