Union Berlin 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.60 for FSV Mainz 05. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 63% and FSV Mainz 05 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | FSV Mainz 05 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.45 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.816 / defence 0.907 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.810 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.406. Data: 57 Union Berlin games / 57 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | FSV Mainz 05 4.00. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 40% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Union Berlin 1.45 / FSV Mainz 05 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.816 / def 0.907 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.810 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FSV Mainz 05 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Union Berlin 3 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 45% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.81x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.33
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.48
1.03
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
6%
16.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.03 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 21D 15L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.28 PPG from 57 outings (20W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.28 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Union Berlin's home form reads 14W 11D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 21W 21D 15L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.89 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
4
Draws
0
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Union Berlin, 68% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union Berlin) and 61% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union Berlin's games and 68% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 61% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.45 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 45% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.47 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.