Union Berlin 2-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union Berlin's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 55% versus FC Augsburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.96 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.051 / defence 0.726 | FC Augsburg attack 0.983 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.328. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Union Berlin games / 47 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 61% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 17%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 61% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Union Berlin 1.96 / FC Augsburg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.051 / def 0.726 | FC Augsburg attack 0.983 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Augsburg xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Union Berlin 2 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 61% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (1.05) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.98x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.55
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.91
0.95
FC Augsburg xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
41.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.95 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin come into this having played 47 games, going 24W 11D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.11 PPG from 47 outings (14W 10D 23L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Berlin's home form reads 15W 6D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.17 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 24W 11D 12L in their last 47 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Augsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.22 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 56%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Union Berlin) and 52% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%; FC Augsburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Union Berlin's recent games and 52% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.96 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.05 / defence 0.73 against FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 61% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 17%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.