Union Berlin 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.80 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union Berlin, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 53% | Eintracht Frankfurt 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.43 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.834 / defence 0.766 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.026 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.255. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Union Berlin games / 58 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 32% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4.35. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 45% | Draw 32% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Union Berlin 1.43 / Eintracht Frankfurt 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.834 / def 0.766 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.026 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 45% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.83x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
45%
2.25
32%
3.11
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.41
0.99
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
17.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.99 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 29W 15D 14L from 58 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 18L across 58 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.76 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 17W 9D 2L from 28 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 29W 15D 14L in their last 58 games (1.76 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 19D 18L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.14 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 57%, Eintracht Frankfurt 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union Berlin) and 54% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Union Berlin's recent games and 54% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.43 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 0.99 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.77 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 45% | Draw 32% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, Eintracht Frankfurt 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.76 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.