Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2020, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 3D 1L from 8 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.88 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 1D 1L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 5D 1L from 8 Bundesliga matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union Berlin are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.88 vs 1.38). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 75% and Eintracht Frankfurt 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 62% | Eintracht Frankfurt 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.34 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.287 / defence 1.001 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.782 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.612. Union Berlin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Union Berlin games / 8 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 59% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 59% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Union Berlin 2.34 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.287 / def 1.001 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.782 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.612 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 3 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 59% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-1L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.29x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.18
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.60
1.26
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
10%
10.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
2%
60.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.26 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 4W 3D 1L from 8 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 1L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Frankfurt heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.75 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Union Berlin and 75% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union Berlin's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Union Berlin's matches and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 9, as Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.34 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.29 / defence 1.00 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 59% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 62%, Eintracht Frankfurt 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.