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Poisson model favours Bayern München (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Bayern München.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Bayern München travel to to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Union Berlin have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bayern München — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayern München haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Bayern München away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayern München, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Union Berlin.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Bayern München winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Union Berlin trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Bayern München trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 76%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 62% and Bayern München 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 62% | Bayern München 94%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.51 xG and Bayern München 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.976 / defence 1.014 | Bayern München attack 1.378 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Union Berlin games / 34 Bayern München games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 50%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | Bayern München 2.00. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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