Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayern München at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Bayern München travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayern München away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 2.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Union Berlin, 2 for Bayern München and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Bayern München winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bayern München trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 60% and Bayern München 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 55% | Bayern München 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.48 xG and Bayern München 2.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.216 / defence 0.862 | Bayern München attack 1.847 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.624. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.847 — the away xG of 2.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Union Berlin games / 38 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 20% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 61%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | Bayern München 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 2.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 20% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG Union Berlin 1.48 / Bayern München 2.59 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.216 / def 0.862 | Bayern München attack 1.847 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.624 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
2.59
Bayern München xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 20% chance of winning, Bayern München a 61% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Bayern München (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 2.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
20%
4.93
19%
5.39
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
4.06
2.59
Bayern München xG
4.93
20%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
8%
13.28
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
2%
65.43
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.59 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 19W 10D 9L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München's form line: 27W 6D 5L from 38 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (12W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 13W 3D 3L from 19 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.97 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bayern München in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Bayern München
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 19W 10D 9L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 27W 6D 5L in their last 38 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.16 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bayern München in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 58%, Bayern München at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Union Berlin and 84% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 74% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Union Berlin's games and 74% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Union Berlin's matches and 84% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Bayern München share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Bayern München finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.48 xG and Bayern München 2.59 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayern München landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.22 / defence 0.86 against Bayern München attack 1.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 20% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 61%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 55%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.