Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 15 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Bundesliga appearances (1.62 PPG). They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 1L from 8 away outings — 2.12 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Union Berlin, 2.00 for Bayer Leverkusen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 80% and Bayer Leverkusen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 67% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.53 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.301 / defence 1.104 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.090 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.533. Union Berlin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Union Berlin games / 15 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 30% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 43%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 75% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 30% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Union Berlin 1.53 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.301 / def 1.104 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.090 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Bayer Leverkusen xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 15 January 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 30% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.09x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.78
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.37
1.84
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
5%
20.91
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.84 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 6W 7D 2L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 8W 5D 2L from 15 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.93 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Union Berlin's scoring rate against Bayer Leverkusen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 6W 7D 2L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.62 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
4
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 75%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Union Berlin and 62% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Union Berlin's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Union Berlin's matches and 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.53 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.84 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.30 / defence 1.10 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 30% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 43%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.67 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.