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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Union Berlin have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Union Berlin's home record at : 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

1. FC Köln's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Union Berlin, 0.80 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Across 10 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Union Berlin — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 62% and 1. FC Köln 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 62% | 1. FC Köln 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.976 / defence 1.014 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.927 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 Union Berlin games / 34 1. FC Köln games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 50% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Köln 27%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Köln 3.70. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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