Union Berlin 2-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Union Berlin, 1.10 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union Berlin 1W, 1. FC Köln 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2020, ended 2–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 62% and 1. FC Köln 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | 1. FC Köln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.59 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.934 / defence 0.944 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.636 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.392. 1. FC Köln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Union Berlin games / 24 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 53% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 18%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 5.56. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Union Berlin 70% | 1. FC Köln 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 53% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Union Berlin 1.59 / 1. FC Köln 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.934 / def 0.944 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.636 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.84
1. FC Köln xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 March 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.93) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.64x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
53%
1.87
29%
3.48
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.43
0.84
1. FC Köln xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
4%
27.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.84 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 8W 11D 5L from 24 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 12L across 24 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 4W 7D 1L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 0.92 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 8W 11D 5L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.58 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 67%, 1. FC Köln 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 50% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 50% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out 1. FC Köln 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1. FC Köln 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.59 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.84 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.64 / defence 1.44, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 53% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 18%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.