SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Borussia Dortmund at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% and Borussia Dortmund 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | Borussia Dortmund 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.88 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.629 / defence 1.337 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.195 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.371. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 66 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 66%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Dortmund 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.88 / Borussia Dortmund 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.629 / def 1.337 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.195 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 12% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 66% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.63x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
12%
8.01
21%
4.67
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.07
2.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
8.01
12%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
11%
8.94
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
1%
71.54
28%
3.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.19 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 32 games, going 3W 9D 20L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.97 PPG from 32 outings (20W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.41 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 3W 5D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.69 points per game from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.50 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 75%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 9D 20L in their last 32 games (0.56 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 20W 3D 9L in their last 32 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.88 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
2
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 56%, Borussia Dortmund at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 62% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 75% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-3 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.88 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.19 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.63 / defence 1.34 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.20 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 66%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, Borussia Dortmund 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.