SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Köln make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
1. FC Köln arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% and 1. FC Köln 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 74% | 1. FC Köln 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.722 / defence 1.109 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.050 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.406. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 57 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 43%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 / 1. FC Köln 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.722 / def 1.109 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.050 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.64
1. FC Köln xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.05x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.66
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.99
1.64
1. FC Köln xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.12
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.64 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 23 games, going 3W 4D 16L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Köln's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.65 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.52 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 4D 16L in their last 23 games (0.57 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 9W 8D 6L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Köln away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.09 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln?
From 4 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 82% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 54% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 82% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 54% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 24, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.64 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 43%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 74%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.