SC Freiburg 2-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.50 for Werder Bremen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Werder Bremen in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 59% and Werder Bremen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | Werder Bremen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.28 xG and Werder Bremen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.820 / defence 0.946 | Werder Bremen attack 1.097 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.363. Data: 44 SC Freiburg games / 10 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Werder Bremen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Freiburg 1.28 / Werder Bremen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.820 / def 0.946 | Werder Bremen attack 1.097 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Werder Bremen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg 2 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 33% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.82) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.10x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
33%
3.01
27%
3.67
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.70
1.42
Werder Bremen xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.42 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 13D 11L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.77 PPG from 44 outings (22W 12D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.77 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 10W 6D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.95 points per game from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.93 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 20W 13D 11L in their last 44 games (1.66 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.71 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.95 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Freiburg, 71% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Freiburg and 81% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 71% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Freiburg's matches and 81% of Werder Bremen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 2-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.28 xG and Werder Bremen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Werder Bremen attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 40%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Werder Bremen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.66 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.