SC Freiburg 1-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.60 PPG lead over VfL Bochum (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfL Bochum in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 62% versus VfL Bochum 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | VfL Bochum 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.88 xG and VfL Bochum 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.042 / defence 1.160 | VfL Bochum attack 1.013 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.599. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 SC Freiburg games / 37 VfL Bochum games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 38%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Bochum 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | VfL Bochum 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG SC Freiburg 1.88 / VfL Bochum 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.042 / def 1.160 | VfL Bochum attack 1.013 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.599 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.88
VfL Bochum xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
SC Freiburg 1 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 38% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.04) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (1.01x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.13
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.76
1.88
VfL Bochum xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
6%
17.23
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.88 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 17W 10D 10L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum's form line: 12W 6D 19L from 37 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 12L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.11 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 17W 10D 10L in their last 37 games (1.65 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 12W 6D 19L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.61 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.78 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 72%, VfL Bochum 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SC Freiburg and 61% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of SC Freiburg's games and 56% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Freiburg's matches and 61% of VfL Bochum's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out VfL Bochum 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 1-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.88 xG and VfL Bochum 1.88 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against VfL Bochum attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 38% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 38%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, VfL Bochum 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.