SC Freiburg 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Europa-Park Stadion plays host to SC Freiburg versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.50 PPG lead over VfB Stuttgart (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
The historical record gives SC Freiburg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 58% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | VfB Stuttgart 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.14 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.029 / defence 0.802 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.907 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.889 / away 1.355. Data: 53 SC Freiburg games / 53 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 62% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 14%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 62% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Freiburg 2.14 / VfB Stuttgart 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.029 / def 0.802 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.907 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.889 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 62% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 3W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.03x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.91x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.23
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.13
0.99
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
12%
8.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
58.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.99 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 25W 14D 14L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 10W 19D 24L from 53 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 12D 13L from 26 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.19 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 games (1.68 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 19D 24L in their last 53 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.88 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.58 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 65%, VfB Stuttgart 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SC Freiburg) and 50% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Freiburg's games and 58% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Freiburg's matches and 50% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.14 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.99 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.80 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 62% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 14%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, VfB Stuttgart 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.