SC Freiburg 2-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Europa-Park Stadion plays host to SC Freiburg versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SC Freiburg against 0.80 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SC Freiburg 1W, VfB Stuttgart 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and VfB Stuttgart 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | VfB Stuttgart 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.42 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.985 / defence 1.002 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.711 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.343. Data: 53 SC Freiburg games / 53 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 45% | Draw 32% | VfB Stuttgart 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | VfB Stuttgart 4.35. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: SC Freiburg 80% | VfB Stuttgart 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 45% | Draw 32% | VfB Stuttgart 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG SC Freiburg 1.42 / VfB Stuttgart 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.985 / def 1.002 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.711 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
VfB Stuttgart xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg 2 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 45% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 0.98x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.71x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.14
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.96 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 20W 15D 18L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 16W 15D 22L from 53 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.19 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.47 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.62 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 69%, VfB Stuttgart 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SC Freiburg) and 54% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SC Freiburg's games and 58% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SC Freiburg's matches and 54% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfB Stuttgart 2-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.42 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.71 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 45% | Draw 32% | VfB Stuttgart 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, VfB Stuttgart 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.