SC Freiburg 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Schwarzwald-Stadion plays host to SC Freiburg versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Schwarzwald-Stadion: 3W 4D 2L from 9 Bundesliga appearances (1.44 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.89 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.60 PPG lead over VfB Stuttgart (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 71% and VfB Stuttgart 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | VfB Stuttgart 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.24 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.429 / defence 1.202 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.150 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.444. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 SC Freiburg games / 17 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 35%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | VfB Stuttgart 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 78% | VfB Stuttgart 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 78% | xG SC Freiburg 2.24 / VfB Stuttgart 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.429 / def 1.202 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.150 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
2.00
VfB Stuttgart xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 January 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 44% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.43x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.15x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
44%
2.29
22%
4.64
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.23
2.00
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.55
Clean Sheet
14%
7.36
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.83
4%
27.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 2.00 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 6W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 5W 7D 5L from 17 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.29 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.88 scored and 1.59 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.44 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for SC Freiburg, 67% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Freiburg and 67% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Freiburg's matches and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.24 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.00 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.43 / defence 1.20 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.15 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 35%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, VfB Stuttgart 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.