SC Freiburg 4-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Europa-Park Stadion.
Union Berlin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.70 for Union Berlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for Union Berlin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–4 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 56% versus Union Berlin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 60% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.51 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.830 / defence 0.779 | Union Berlin attack 0.910 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.845 / away 1.294. SC Freiburg's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 SC Freiburg games / 48 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 4.35. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 50% | Union Berlin 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG SC Freiburg 1.51 / Union Berlin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.830 / def 0.779 | Union Berlin attack 0.910 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.845 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Union Berlin xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg 4 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 51% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SC Freiburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.83) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.91x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.84
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.43
0.92
Union Berlin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.92 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 48 games, going 23W 13D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (24W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.75 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 6D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.52 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 23W 13D 12L in their last 48 games (1.71 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.83 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.35 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Union Berlin have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 61%, Union Berlin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SC Freiburg) and 56% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Union Berlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SC Freiburg's games and 52% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SC Freiburg's matches and 56% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Freiburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Union Berlin 4-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.51 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.78 against Union Berlin attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 60%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Berlin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.71 PPG, Union Berlin 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.