SC Freiburg 1-4 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.70 for Union Berlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 61% and Union Berlin 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.80 xG and Union Berlin 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.147 / defence 1.110 | Union Berlin attack 0.989 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.371. Data: 66 SC Freiburg games / 66 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 31%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Union Berlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG SC Freiburg 1.80 / Union Berlin 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.147 / def 1.110 | Union Berlin attack 0.989 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Union Berlin xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg 1 - 4 Union Berlin.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 44% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SC Freiburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.15) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.99x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
44%
2.30
26%
3.92
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.31
1.50
Union Berlin xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.50 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 66 games, going 27W 19D 20L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.53 PPG from 66 outings (26W 23D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.53 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 15W 11D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.12 points per game from 33 outings (9W 10D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.41 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 27W 19D 20L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 26W 23D 17L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.70 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Union Berlin have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 67%, Union Berlin 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Freiburg) and 52% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 61% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Freiburg's matches and 52% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Freiburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union Berlin run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SC Freiburg 1-4 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.80 xG and Union Berlin 1.50 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union Berlin outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.15 / defence 1.11 against Union Berlin attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 31%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, Union Berlin 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.