SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Schwarzwald-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Schwarzwald-Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Union Berlin (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Union Berlin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 67% and Union Berlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 67% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.98 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.342 / defence 1.063 | Union Berlin attack 0.728 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.448. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 SC Freiburg games / 21 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Union Berlin 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Union Berlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG SC Freiburg 1.98 / Union Berlin 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.342 / def 1.063 | Union Berlin attack 0.728 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Union Berlin xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 February 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg 0 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 56% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SC Freiburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.34) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.73x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.09
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.10
1.12
Union Berlin xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
36.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.12 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 7D 6L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.43 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.62 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.80 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Union Berlin have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for SC Freiburg, 70% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for SC Freiburg and 50% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SC Freiburg's games and 70% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of SC Freiburg's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Freiburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SC Freiburg 0-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.98 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.34 / defence 1.06 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.48 PPG, Union Berlin 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.